The Mideast Gulf could feasibly export significant volumes of low-carbon hydrogen to Europe via a pipeline across the Mediterranean at a delivered cost of about €2.7/kg ($2.95/kg) from the 2030s, according to preliminary analysis by two consultancies.

A pipeline system connecting Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and traversing the Mediterranean, could transport 100TWh, or c.2.5mn t/yr, of hydrogen to Europe, with the potential to scale up with the addition of further lines, according to Italian inspection, certification and engineering consultancy Rina and Swedish-Finnish engineering, design, and advisory firm Afry.

The cost of transporting hydrogen by pipeline is initially seen as approximately €1.2/kg. The Gulf countries could supply green and blue hydrogen by pipeline to Europe at a levelised cost of delivered hydrogen of c.€2.7/kg starting from the 2030s, falling to around €2.3/kg in the longer term, the analysis shows.

“We have identified a potential stable corridor to bring supply and demand together” Bombardi, Rina

“The findings of the study represent a decisive contribution to boost the hydrogen economy,” says Andrea Bombardi, executive vice-president of Rina. “Together with Afry, we have identified a potential stable corridor to bring supply and demand together. The scale-up of hydrogen adoption goes through projects like this.”

Mideast Gulf developers of hydrogen supply have so far concentrated on a strategy to export green ammonia, either for direct use or for cracking back to hydrogen at the destination port. Projects to develop cracking capacity are underway in northwest Europe. However, the cost of cracking and potential efficiency losses could undermine the case for conversion back to hydrogen, potentially leaving direct use of green ammonia as the more attractive option for some producers.

UAE state-owned clean energy developer Masdar told the recent FT Hydrogen Summit in London that offtakers were not willing to pay prices at which its hydrogen production projects are viable. Separately, state-owned Saudi Aramco’s president and CEO Amin Nasser said high costs had hampered efforts to secure offtakers in Europe and Asia. He put the cost of Saudi blue hydrogen at about $250/bl oe.

Current export options, such as ammonia shipping, may not be most efficient for bulk transport, according to Afry and Rina. “A competitive and actionable pipeline project from the Gulf region in the near future could provide a viable and powerful complement,” the consultancies say.

Recent geopolitical challenges have forced Europe to explore alternative avenues for energy security, including linking the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe by pipeline, which was investigated for the EastMed project, they say.

---

Author: Stuart Penson