Platinum availability is unlikely to be a barrier to the deployment of a hydrogen economy, according to a recent white paper from UK technology company Johnson Matthey.

Platinum is used in the manufacture of both proton-exchange-membrane (PEM) electrolysers and fuel-cells. Concerns over global supply chains in 2022 led the Biden administration to take action to secure domestic supply to support its growing hydrogen economy.

The latest supply and demand data from the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a record platinum market deficit of almost 1m oz in 2023. The deficit is a result of strong 28% year-on-year growth in demand in combination with a constrained outlook for supply, which is down 1% year-on-year. And the WPIC predicts consecutive and deepening annual deficits out to 2027.

“Auto catalyst recycling is incredibly well-organised and efficient globally,” Watts, SFA

But there are mitigating factors. High levels of platinum are held in stocks around the world which could be released if prices rise high enough. And the metal’s largest demand sector—for use in catalytic converters in cars—will start to dwindle after 2030 as internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles start to be phased out, said the Johnson Matthey whitepaper, titled: Platinum: a sustainable solution for the energy transition.

Meanwhile well-established supply chains for recycling of platinum from ICE vehicles will continue to be a significant source of platinum for decades to come.

“Even when sales of fossil-fuelled ICE vehicles end, they typically have a lifetime of 10–20 years on the road, meaning auto catalyst scrap recovery will continue into the 2050s and beyond,” noted the paper.

Global platinum recycling figures for the automotive segment have remained steady at 1.18–1.57m oz between 2014 and 2022 and are forecast by the WPIC to be at 1.24m in 2023.

Dr Jenny Watts, head of clean energy and sustainability at consultancy SFA (Oxford), agreed with the Johnson Matthey assessment that above-ground stocks and recycling should keep the market well supplied for the next few years.

“Auto catalyst recycling is incredibly well-organised and efficient globally,” she told Hydrogen Economist. “And there is plenty of metal sitting out there [in stocks]. For the right price this metal can be, and will be, mobilised.”

Scale model

The Johnson Matthey papers goes on to model the amount of fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) that could be manufactured using the platinum supply available. The model assumes that 1.58m oz are available for FCEVs, rising to 2.82m oz in 2030 and 4.58m oz by 2040, subsequently staying at that level as demand from the jewellery and ICE sectors drops off.

The modelling shows this would permit 2.1–2.5m FCEVs to be produced every year by 2030, 6.6–8.6m every year by 2040, and 11–18m every year by 2050.

"This would comfortably allow fuel-cells to be used in all commercial vehicles produced in [2050], and to also take a material share of the passenger vehicle market,” says Johnson Matthey.

The numbers assume a two-fold improvement in metal intensity per vehicle by 2050 and closed-loop recycling for all platinum used in FCEVs, with collection and processing losses of 20%.

The model is based on levels of supply being maintained. But a healthy outlook for platinum demand could mean additional mines are put into operation, according to Johnson Matthey.

“Thanks to the size of the deposits in southern Africa, and the vast quantities of platinum (and other PGM [platinum group metals]) they are estimated to host, we can be confident that the metal exists to be extracted and meet global needs for decades to come,” it said.

There are several reasons that the heavy reliance of the sector on platinum mining in South Africa does not present a supply risk, according to the paper.

PGM mining operations are undertaken by large multinationals and are independent of government control. Unstable electricity supply is an ongoing challenge, but one that companies have an established track record of managing, it added.

The growth of supply from recycled metal also lessens the risk from geographical concentration of supply, according to Watts.

“Recycled metal offers a convenient addition to mined supply." 

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Author: Tom Young