The global pipeline for announced electrolyser projects has reached 957GW, according to UK consultancy Aurora Energy Research.

While much of this capacity is dominated by a single project—Canada’s 500GW Spirit of Scotia, announced in August—the pipeline has still grown by 25pc from last year if this project is excluded.

Total operational electrolyser capacity is currently 270MW. And while 24.1GW and 177GW of capacity is expected to come online in 2025 and 2030 respectively, 677GW of projects in the pipeline have not announced a year of deployment.

Growing competition

Less than a third of European projects have indicated which type of electrolyser they install. The majority to have announced a preferred technology have chosen proton-exchange-membrane (PEM) electrolysers, with 37 projects disclosing they would use this type. However, while those that have chosen alkaline electrolysers (AEs) trail at 26, the average capacity of such projects is triple that of PEM projects, at 35.1MW compared with 11.4MW.

PEM electrolysers are better able to ramp up and down quickly in response to fluctuating input—a clear advantage for projects aiming to use renewable energy to power electrolysis. But some industry sources have raised concerns about the scalability of PEM units, which use rare metals platinum and iridium for their catalysts. AEs are primarily made with steel and nickel, although both metals can be vulnerable to price spikes.

377TWh – German hydrogen demand by 2050 in net-zero scenario

Solid-oxide electrolyser cells and membrane-free technologies remain marginal, with two projects opting for the former and only one known to have chosen the latter.

Aurora’s analysis of electrolyser manufacturers indicates that John Cockerill is positioning itself to be the largest manufacturer by capacity in 2025, at 8GW/yr—a 16-fold increase from current capacity. By the same date, Siemens will supply the largest number of projects, with nine confirmed, while Thyssenkrupp will lead in terms of capacity supplied, at around 1GW.

In the long term, Thyssenkrupp, Plug Power, Longi and Ohmium are expected to be key market players, with a total future capacity of more than 13GW/yr announced after 2025.

Demand centres

Aurora models two scenarios for hydrogen demand in Europe. The first ‘net-zero’ scenario is aligned with European government targets for reaching that goal by 2050, while the second, more conservative ‘central’ scenario anticipates government targets not being met and hydrogen being limited to only the most economically viable applications.

Germany and the UK are both highlighted as among the most attractive countries for hydrogen investment—based on policy support, infrastructure and anticipated levels of supply and demand.

Germany’s hydrogen demand is expected to exceed 377TWh by 2050 in the net-zero scenario from 56TWh today, while the UK’s demand in the same scenario is expected to reach over 277TWh by that year from 26TWh today. Aurora notes that both countries will see initial demand from the refining sector—with Germany’s ammonia and methanol industries cited being well-established—although this may decrease as the need for hydrogen to process fossil fuels diminishes.

Hydrogen demand throughout Europe in 2030 is not expected to increase substantially from the current c.250TWh, as green hydrogen replaces grey for the ammonia and refining sectors. After 2030, Aurora anticipates an uptick in overall demand as hydrogen is increasingly used to decarbonise high-grade process heat and the steel industry, in particular. The maritime and aviation sectors are also predicted to significantly increase the use of hydrogen and its derivatives from the mid-2030s.

Of the 299 European projects in Aurora’s database, 199 have indicated an end-use and 122 have specifically planned offtake from industry. Refining and steel are the most popular subsectors for industrial end-use, at 25 and 16 projects respectively.

Aurora anticipates hydrogen will play only a marginal role in decarbonising domestic heating compared with the rollout of heat pumps and other low-carbon technologies. However, the firm also notes that, in both Germany and the UK, the required amount of hydrogen in heating will be almost as much as current demand due to the overall size of the sector at 400TWh and 500TWh respectively.

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Author: Polly Martin