Hydrogen trade routes will be shaped by geopolitical as well as geographical factors, according to a panel at the Hydrogen Americas Summit.

As the fuel becomes an increasingly central part of nations’ decarbonisation plans, trade relationships are beginning to develop. These are being shaped by a number of factors, according to Sean Strawbridge, CEO of the Port of Corpus Christi in the US.

“Energy has become more important from a geopolitical standpoint. Japan is investing more in its military... because of sabre-rattling going on in the South China Sea… and they want a pipeline of energy from whatever source they know they can rely on,” he says.

Both Japan and South Korea are developing trade relationships with potential hydrogen exporters—principally Australia. According to the nations’ respective hydrogen strategies, Japan wants to expand its hydrogen demand from 2mn t/yr currently to 3mn t/yr by 2030 and 20mn t/yr by 2050, while South Korea wants to import 22mn t/yr of green hydrogen by 2050.

22mn t/yr – South Korea’s 2050 hydrogen import target

Australia is looking to export large amounts of hydrogen to meet this demand, according to Fiona Simon, CEO of industry body the Australian Hydrogen Council.

“For Australia, exports are driving everything,” she says. “We need to consider hydrogen and its derivatives as a version of a replacement for LNG.”

Simon also mentioned Taiwan as a possible future importer of hydrogen. Taiwan has said in its hydrogen strategy that it sees the fuel as vital to decarbonisation plans, although it has not set specific import targets.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic Basin the US is targeting the EU as a destination for potential exports.

The Port of Corpus Christi has signed an initial deal to ship 4mn t/yr of hydrogen to Rotterdam, with first shipments starting in 2026.

Rotterdam also has exploratory studies are underway with more than ten countries—including Iceland, Portugal, Morocco, Oman, South Africa, Uruguay, Chile, Brazil, Australia and Canada.

Certification

One issue for global trade will be certification. The EU has set a goal to import 10mn t/yr of green hydrogen by 2030 and is developing its standards on a definition for the fuel. But Corpus Christi will have an initial focus on developing blue hydrogen because of the hydrocarbon resources in the area.

“In the near term, a hydrogen economy will be based on natural gas,” says Strawbridge.

However, the EU has not specifically ruled out blue hydrogen imports, and some MEPs have proposed including it in demand targets. Both Australia and the US have moved towards a “low-carbon” system for certification, meaning they define hydrogen by carbon intensity rather than production method. The EU is considering a more robust definition focused specifically on green hydrogen.

But any issues around certification can be ironed-out in contract agreements, according to Simon.

“Certification is often used as a fig leaf for a range of other concerns around risk,” she says.  “You can handle anything in a contract.”

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Author: Tom Young