Europe’s aviation sector could prove to be a major source of hydrogen demand in the coming decades.

In 2021, the European Commission proposed a blending mandate of 63pc sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in the fuel used in EU airports by 2050. It also proposed a sub-target of 28pc of synthetic fuels by 2050.

In July this year, the European Parliament proposed a stronger target—85pc SAF by 2050, including 50pc from synthetic fuels. The parliament also widened the definition of synthetic fuels to include those derived from electricity and green hydrogen.

It had been hoped that negotiations on the targets would finalise before the end of the year, says Tom Berg, policy and sustainability manager at Duch SAF supplier SkyNRG.

“But the chances are becoming smaller and smaller. It may get pushed to Q2 2023 depending on the progress made under the Czech presidency in the coming weeks,” he tells Hydrogen Economist.

63pc – European Commission’s proposed SAF blending mandate

“The most likely scenario is that the total amount of SAF would end up somewhere between the Commission proposal and the parliament proposal,” Berg adds.

This will require significant amounts of hydrogen for use in synthetic fuels like e-kerosene, which is made with hydrogen and captured CO₂. Each tonne of e-kerosene requires 0.5t of hydrogen.

Biofuel-based SAF also requires hydrogen, but not at the scales seen in synthetic fuels, Berg says. And in any case, “producers can get away with using grey hydrogen and still meet GHG reduction thresholds under policy schemes”, he adds, noting that “a hydro-treated vegetable oil (HVO) produced with grey hydrogen would still be considered a sustainable biofuel”.

One obstacle to raising the target is uncertainty around supply. There are doubts whether the EU could supply enough SAF to meet the higher target, or if it would become import-reliant.

However, Brussels-based thinktank Transport and Environment (T&E) believes the current targets are not ambitious enough. It has called for a 100pc SAF mandate by 2050, to be met mostly with synthetic fuels.

T&E is pleased that the parliament’s proposal “goes some way towards selecting the right types of SAFs...it excludes food and feed crop-based biofuels and instead focuses on advanced biofuels and synthetic aviation fuels”.

But it notes that advanced biofuels are of limited availability and may compete with road transport. It sees a maximum viable target of around 6mn t/yr for such biofuels by 2050, and argues the vast majority of SAF demand can be met with e-kerosene and directly with hydrogen and electrification.

Demand management

Europe will need to manage demand for flights to make this ambition viable. If jet fuel demand is allowed to grow unchecked, it could reach around 57mn t/yr by 2050, requiring around 50mn t/yr of e-kerosene, T&E says. This would appear unrealistic—aviation could end up consuming 24pc of Europe’s renewable energy production in such a scenario, the thinktank says.

But if the EU manages to reduce business travel by 50pc from 2019 levels and keep leisure travel frozen at the same year’s level, then total SAF demand would be around 31mn t/yr by 2050, requiring around 24.5mn tyr of e-kerosene to decarbonise. T&E also forecasts around 2.5mn t/yr of green hydrogen might be used in flight in Europe directly. In total, this would require 660TWh/yr of renewable power, around 12.5pc of total expected EU production by 2050.

T&E's figures would suggest a green hydrogen demand of almost 15mn t/yr by 2050 if air travel demand is controlled. For context, current hydrogen demand in Europe is just 8.6mn t/yr—including demand in UK, Switzerland, Norway and Iceland—according to the EU’s Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Observatory.

---

Author: Killian Staines