UK energy system operator National Grid has urged the government to set out a clearer strategy for hydrogen demand to help steer the emerging industry’s development.

The government has set a target for the UK to produce 10GW of low-carbon hydrogen by 2030 but needs to set a corresponding demand-side strategy, National Grid says in a new report on reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, titled Future Energy Scenarios 2022.

“Clarity is needed as soon as possible on the future role of hydrogen, especially in residential heating as this will support the strategic coordination and whole-energy-system thinking required to meet net zero in a way that is secure, clean, affordable and fair,” National Grid says.

The government has set a deadline of 2026 for a decision on whether to develop hydrogen for residential and commercial heating.

National Grid sets out four main scenarios for the future decarbonisation of the UK energy system. In its “leading the way” scenario—the fastest route to decarbonisation—it envisages hydrogen boiler uptake by 2028 in areas around industrial clusters where hydrogen supply is available.

“Clarity is needed as soon as possible on the future role of hydrogen, especially in residential heating” National Grid

Beyond heating, National Grid says the credible range of possible applications of hydrogen in the energy system is “very wide”, highlighting the need for a more focused approach to the development of demand.

“While hydrogen for power generation is needed in all our net-zero scenarios to support electricity security of supply, the broader levels of demand, hydrogen production methods, and end-uses vary greatly between the scenarios,” it says.

Hydrogen demand development will need to be accelerated to avoid the need for high levels of blending into the natural gas network as hydrogen supply rises. The government says it does not see blending as a long-term solution.

Based on current analysis, the two fastest decarbonisation scenarios in the report would require some level of blending between the mid-2020s and the 2040s to accommodate the 2030 hydrogen production target. This would require new regulations and processes for supplying and billing end-consumers, as well as updated safety rules, National Grid says.

“To minimise blending, there will either need to be a steep growth in demand over the 2020s or spare hydrogen production capacity will need to be built in anticipation of demand which would grow later,” it says.

National Grid adds the UK’s natural gas infrastructure has enough capacity for hydrogen transmission at the levels it expects in its future scenarios. Significant modifications would be needed, however, including the replacement of the grids 25 compressor stations with as few as 12 more powerful units.

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Author: Stuart Penson