Hydrogen demand will have grown tenfold by 2050, to 735mn t/yr, with almost all of this volume being produced using electrolysis, according to a new analysis by research firm Rethink Energy.

The forecast falls towards the upper range of scenarios outlined by other organisations, which estimate 300-800mn t/yr of demand by 2050 depending on future policy, sectoral strategies and the degree to which countries are able to achieve their Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement.

735mn t/yr – 2050 hydrogen demand foreseen by Rethink Energy

The Rethink Energy analysis differs from those of other organisations in that it envisions a much higher ratio of green hydrogen to blue hydrogen in meeting this demand—and therefore a higher total of green hydrogen production in 2050 than any of the other reports analysed by Hydrogen Economist.

It foresees “almost all” global hydrogen demand being met by the green variety of the fuel in 2050, whereas the IEA predicts that, of its 600mn t/yr forecast total hydrogen demand, 60pc (360mn t/yr) will be met by green hydrogen. Thinktank the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) predicts green hydrogen will account for 85pc (425-680mn t/yr) of a 500-800mn t/yr total , while risk management firm DNV sees the figure as 72pc (216mn t/yr) of 300mn t/yr.

The Rethink analysis estimates 1,000GW of electrolyser capacity by 2040 and the IEA predicts roughly the same, while the ETC predicts 3,300GW and DNV 1,748GW.

Getting giga and giga

The Rethink analysis—titled The Swelling Pipeline of Electrolyser Gigafactories—says that, based on recent announcements, manufacturers have committed to building factories that can produce more than 42GW/yr of electrolysers by 2030.

“Such factories only take around two years to build, and at the current rate of these announcements, Rethink Energy predicts that the developments will keep pace with electrolyser demand over the next ten years,” it says.

Fourteen different manufactures now have plans for gigafactories across 12 countries. The pace of expansion will help bring down the cost of overall green hydrogen production, the report adds.

“By 2024, several OEMs will be providing systems that can produce green hydrogen at a lower cost than grey hydrogen,” it says.

“By 2024 several OEMs will be providing systems that can produce green hydrogen at a lower cost than grey hydrogen” Rethink Energy

To keep pace with demand after that, new plants with a combined capacity of around 12GW/yr will have to be announced and added every year between 2026 and 2032.

The European Commission is introducing measures to help electrolyser manufacturers ramp up their production capacity tenfold by 2025 to meet the bloc’s ambitious RepowerEU green hydrogen production targets.

Some electrolyser manufacturers maintain they are running below capacity, and that bottlenecks in deployment lie with the lack of FIDs on green hydrogen projects rather than their ability to meet demand.

Nel’s then CEO Jon Andre Lokke told the FT Hydrogen Summit in June that his firm was waiting for big investment decisions.

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Author: Tom Young