Alkaline electrolyser (AE) deployment costs will fall to less than a quarter of their current levels by 2050, with proton-exchange membranes (PEM) costs also declining to reach parity with the more established technology by 2040, according to a report by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Csiro), which is funded by the Australian government.

PEM electrolyser costs are likely to fall more rapidly than costs for AE units as the technology is less developed and has offers further efficiency improvements.

Under a scenario based on current international policies, AE costs will fall from $1,378/kW currently to $296/KW by 2050, with PEM costs falling from $2,456/kW currently to the same level by the same date, Csiro modelling shows.

“Electrolyser deployment is being supported by a substantial number of hydrogen supply and end-use trials” Csiro

“Electrolyser deployment is being supported by a substantial number of hydrogen supply and end-use trials globally and in Australia,” says the most recent edition of the annual report.

“Experience with other emerging technologies indicates that this type of globally coincident technology deployment activity can lead to a scale-up in manufacturing which supports cost reductions through economies of scale.”

Under a scenario where policies are enacted that are consistent with the world reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, costs fall even more dramatically for both technologies and reach $170/kW by 2050.

China might see even cheaper electrolyser deployment costs, according to the report. “However, differences in engineering and operating and maintenance costs mean these are not able to be immediately replicated in other regions,” the report says.

Policy difference

The current policies scenario envisages 137mn t/yr of demand by 2040, while the global net-zero scenario envisages 331mn t/yr of demand by the same date.

Policies might include supply-side and demand-side support for the sector.

The costs applied at the starting point of the projection are for 10MW electrolysers and, over time, this is scaled out to model the costs of 100MW electrolysers, in line with the expected production capacity of the sector.

Csiro’s report is produced in collaboration with the Australian Energy Market Operator to deliver an annual process of updating electricity generation, storage and hydrogen production costs with a strong emphasis on stakeholder engagement.

 

 

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Author: Tom Young