Namibian president Hage Geingob led his country’s first official delegation to the World Economic Forum in Davos in late May with more than 30 projects to showcase across multiple sectors. However, the primary reason for the invitation was mounting European recognition of Namibia’s enormous potential as a source of some of the vast volumes of green hydrogen required to decarbonise the continent.

And the project focused on by both parties was one designed to do just that—a planned $10bn green hydrogen and ammonia production and export hub off Namibia’s southern coast that promises to supply 300,000t/yr to world markets by the end of the decade.

The details were unchanged since the scheme was unveiled by Anglo-German Hyphen Hydrogen in November—notably at the end of a competitive bidding process and following broad parameters defined by Windhoek rather than the putative foreign investor.

The complex will be developed in two phases, producing 125,000t/yr of hydrogen by 2026 before reaching capacity four years later. It will use 3GW of electrolysers powered with 5GW of greenfield renewables. The hydrogen will be converted into up to 1.7mn t/yr of ammonia for potential export—chiefly targeting the European market—with a small portion of the renewables used to decarbonise and expand domestic power generation. Namibia’s installed capacity stands at around 700MW, with c.50pc from hydropower and the rest split between fossil fuels and solar.

$1.5-2/kg – Project’s forecast green hydrogen costs

Prefeasibility studies are underway, with signature of an implementation agreement—triggering a full feasibility study—targeted by August and construction due to kick off in early 2025.

Financing will primarily be down to Hyphen, a joint venture between the South African subsidiary of German clean energy specialist Enertrag and the UK’s Nicholas Holdings, although Windhoek has said it intends to exercise its right to acquire a 24pc stake and that it could issue green bonds to do so.

Commercial appeal

That nine project proposals were submitted by six prospective developers—including South African energy and chemicals giant Sasol and Australian mining titan Fortescue—is testament to the  commercial appeal of Namibian hydrogen. The country is one of the world’s sunniest, with c.3,500hr/yr of sunlight, while the coastal location offered—in the Tsau Khaeb national park near the port of Luderitz—adds high wind speeds to the area’s renewable power potential. The German government has estimated the project’s green hydrogen production costs could be as low as $1.5-2/kg.

The Hyphen project is envisaged as one of several similar hydrogen-based complexes under the so-called Southern Corridor Development Initiative, with shared infrastructure—including a new deepwater port at Luderitz—to be developed capable of supporting up to 3mn t/yr of production. Officials say the request for proposals on a second scheme should be issued this year.

There is no indication so far that Africa’s largest-ever offshore oil discovery, made off the country’s southern coast in February, has dented the enthusiasm. International interest of a type no longer excited by frontier oil plays seems certain to keep it alive.

EU states are heavily involved in supporting Namibia’s hydrogen plans, reflective of the target enshrined in Brussels’ new RepowerEU plan to secure 10mn t/yr of hydrogen from overseas by 2030. In August, Berlin agreed to provide €40mn ($41.7mn) in funding towards the industry’s development, including pilot projects and capacity-building, as part of a wider hydrogen partnership.

The Port of Rotterdam is assisting the Namibian Ports Authority in preparing a masterplan for integration of green hydrogen exports into the country’s maritime logistics system, while a mixed local and Belgian team, Cleanergy Namibia, announced plans in February to commission the country’s first green hydrogen demonstration plant, in the coastal province of Erongo, by the end of next year.

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Author: Clare Dunkley