Hydrogen demand may need to be triple that envisioned by the EU hydrogen strategy if the EU’s decarbonisation targets are to be successfully achieved, according to modelling by consultancy Deloitte.

The firm used a model combining MIRET-EU and Integrate Europe—two partial-equilibrium models—to develop two decarbonisation scenarios for the region, both of which achieve climate neutrality by 2050.

European hydrogen demand in both pathways exceeds 30mn t/yr by 2030, which is triple the current policy objective described in the EU hydrogen strategy. Demand for hydrogen ramps up substantially over the 2030s and 2040s and exceeds 100mn t /yr by 2050 in both pathways.

30mn t/yr – EU hydrogen demand by 2030

Half of that demand comes from the transport sector, either for consumption in fuel cells, as intermediary feedstock for the production of synthetic fuels, or for use in biorefineries. Industry is responsible for 45mn t/yr and power generation for 5mn t/yr.

“The pathways highlight the importance of keeping the momentum that is currently seen in Europe behind hydrogen production projects,” says the report, titled Hydrogen for Europe.

Blue and green hydrogen

“Early investments are needed to increase the volumes of hydrogen production as soon as the next decade and create the necessary scale.” Blue hydrogen plays a critical role in establishing a hydrogen economy in the first half of the outlook periods in both pathways.

In the Technology Diversification pathway, the production mix is balanced in 2050, with green and blue sources both providing about half of the European output.

In the Renewable Push pathway, underpinned by higher policy targets for renewable energy deployment, green takes over during the late 2030s and becomes the biggest hydrogen production source by 2040, with 77mn t/yr. More than 1,800GW of dedicated solar and wind capacity, and more than 1,600GW of electrolysers will need to be installed by 2050 to meet this level of production.

The Technology Diversification pathway is highly dependent on the development of the carbon capture, utilisation and storage value chain and the ability of CO₂ storage capacities to grow rapidly over the next thirty years, with an injection capacity of 1.4gt/yr foreseen by 2050. 

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Author: Tom Young