The EU’s Hydrogen Strategy, launched in July 2020 along with the Clean Hydrogen Alliance, aims to expand the bloc’s green H₂ production capacity by installing 6GW of electrolysers by 2024 and 40GW by 2030.

Electrolysers use electricity generated from renewable sources to split water into green hydrogen and oxygen. The EU’s renewable energy resources are insufficient to meet predicted demand, so the bloc is eyeing North Africa, especially Morocco, as a source of green hydrogen. Morocco has a potential installed capacity of 20,000GW of photovoltaic and 6,500MW of wind power, according to government estimates.

“Europe believes hydrogen is a key part of our future,” Norbert Barthle, parliamentary state secretary to Germany’s federal minister for economic cooperation and development, told Morocco’s Power-to-X virtual conference in December.

“Europe believes hydrogen is a key part of [its] future” Barthle, German government

His ministry committed €88.5mn ($108.8mn) “to jumpstart the development of a green Moroccan hydrogen industry,” says Barthle. “I expect to see green hydrogen made in Morocco in about four years. This effort offers great potential for both sides and we hope this will trigger other international partnerships.”

Germany forecasts its annual demand for hydrogen will be 90-110TWh by 2030. Only a small part of this will be produced domestically, says Andreas Feicht, state secretary at Germany’s federal ministry for economic affairs and energy. The country aims to install 5GW of electrolysers by 2030 and a further 5GW by 2040, which would cover c.15-20pc of its hydrogen demand.

Portugal policy

Portugal is also looking to green hydrogen to help it meet its decarbonisation goals but is taking a different approach. It is set to introduce regulations governing the injection of renewable gases, including hydrogen, into its natural gas network.

“Renewable gases, particularly hydrogen and biomethane, have the potential to play an important role in decarbonising sectors that currently have few alternative technological options and where electrification would result in significant costs or is technically infeasible,” says Joao Pedro Matos Fernandes, Portugal’s environment and energy transition minister.

Renewable energy must increase its share of the EU’s electricity production from 18pc to 65pc by 2030 if the bloc is to meet its emissions targets, says EU energy commissioner Kadri Simson.

“North African countries are increasingly able to generate cheap and abundant renewable electricity. There is a huge potential to develop power-to-gas technology and produce green hydrogen and its derivatives for local consumption and possibly for export,” says Simson. “Europe is a prospective importer of these forms of carbon-neutral energy. For these reasons, we intend to place hydrogen high on the agenda.”

Mediterranean links

Europe and North Africa are already closely connected—commercially and in terms of energy infrastructure— according to Paolo Frankl, head of renewable energy at the IEA. “This is a good starting point, but what is at stake here is much more—it is leadership in global markets and therefore more ambitious expansion plans should be included,” says Frankl.

Yet, for all the bullish forecasts for Europe’s transition to green hydrogen, making it competitive with other energy sources remains difficult. Of the 70mn t of hydrogen produced globally, 99pc is made from fossil fuels. Installed electrolyser capacity must increase from 200MW currently to 3,300GW to achieve global net-zero emissions, the IEA estimates. By then, at least half of total hydrogen production must come from electrolysis.

3,300GW – Electrolysis required to achieve global net-zero emissions

Renewable electricity prices—a key factor in making green hydrogen—have tumbled, so the focus should be on making electrolysers more affordable, says Francesco La Camera, director general of the International Renewable Energy Agency.

“Long-term commitments are needed to give a signal to investors to channel private capital to hydrogen technologies. Regulation is needed to create new markets. Certification is needed to track and value low emissions from green hydrogen,” says La Camera.

Hydrogen electrolyser costs will fall by up to 60pc providing manufacturing at scale proves possible, says the IEA’s Frankl. “We know the technology to produce green hydrogen, what we need is a massive scale-up—the largest electrolysers today are 10MW, we need to go to 1GW in 2030, so bilateral projects are very important,” he adds.

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Author: Matt Smith